The Industries of the Future

Author Alec Ross, is a technology policy expert who was Senior Advisor for Innovation to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He is now a Senior Fellow at Columbia University. This book is a New York Times Bestseller. Here is why.The most important job you will ever have will be to understand the future so you can guide your children’s development into it.The last wave of innovation and globalization which centred around digitization and the internet, produced winners and losers. Among the winners were the investors, entrepreneurs, people with high-skills levels, and those who focused on fast-growing markets and new inventions. In this period more than a billion people rose from poverty into the middle class in the developing countries. They achieved this because their labour was sold at low cost, and their countries had entered the global economy.And there were the losers. They generally came from countries where the cost of their poorly skilled labour was high, and they could not train up to the needs of the technological changes and the competition of global markets. In the past they could have found work in the textile industry or in mining. Textiles in South Africa lost to the countries with cheaper labour, and mining was slimmed down by mechanical and technological advances.“And all this change will pale in comparison to what is going to come in the next wave of innovation, as it hits all 196 countries on the planet,” Ross explains.In the near future, Ross points out, people will be able to wear robot-suits that will enable paraplegics to walk. They will ingest designer drugs which will melt away certain forms of cancer. Computer code will be the new international currency. Computer code will be the new weapon that will be able to destroy physical infrastructure on the other side of the world.This book explores the industries that will drive the next 20 years of change to our economies and societies. These are industries producing cutting-edge advances in robotics. They are advancing the life sciences that will change the way we work and live. These industries codify money, and use code as weapons (and prevent codes being used as weapons,) and other industries will take data, the raw material of the information age, and advance society through this.The advances these industries will make and the wealth they generate will not accrue evenly. Again there will be winners and many losers.A sense of the message of this very rich book can be seen from the section on robotics.Japan is already the world leader in robotics, operating 25% of all the industrial robots in existence across the world.25% of Japanese are over 65. Japan’s birth rate is very low. The consequence of this demographic is that there will not be enough people to care for grandparents. Enter the robots. The future caretakers of the aged are being developed right now in a Japanese factory. Toyota and Honda are using their mechanical engineering proficiency to invent the next generation of robots.Robina, for example, is a 60 kilograms, 1.2 meters tall ‘female’ robot. She can communicate using words and gestures. “She has wide-set eyes, a moptop hairdo, and even a flowing white metallic skirt.” Humanoid, (‘male’) is a multipurpose home assistant. He can do the dishes, take care of your sick, aged parents, and can even entertain them by playing the trumpet or violin.Honda’s ASIMO can even interpret human emotions, movements, and conversation. It can help the patient get out of bed and even hold a conversation. ‘Walking Assist’ is a device that wraps around the legs and backs of people with weakened leg muscles so they can move on their own.Robots of this kind will be the rare technology that starts with grandma showing her cutting-edge gadget to her children and grandchildren.Japan, the United States, and Germany dominate the high-value industrial and medical robot arena, and South Korea and China are now the major producers of less expensive consumer-oriented robots.Already at Manchester Airport in England, there are robot janitors that navigate the cleaning of their work areas using laser scanners and ultrasonic detectors. If a person gets in the way, the robot will say, “Excuse me, I am cleaning,” with a perfect English accent, and work around the person.“The first wave of labour substitution from automation and robotics came from jobs that were often dangerous, dirty, and dreary and involved little personal interaction,” Ross explains. In the future, however, jobs that require situational awareness, spatial reasoning and dexterity, contextual understanding, and human judgment, are now starting to be performed by robots. These include waitressing (the Hajime restaurant in Bangkok has robot waiters to take orders, serve customers, and clean tables,) hairdressing (Panasonic created a 24-fingered hairwashing robot that has been tested in Japanese salons,) and driverless cars (Google, and soon - Uber?)An Oxford study of more than 700 occupations suggests that over half of US jobs could be at risk of computerization in the next two decades. 47% are at high risk of robot takeover, and 19% face a medium level of risk. Replacing a trial lawyer may take a while, but not the replacement of a paralegal.Consider the impact on those working in the jobs accessible to lower skilled people, jobs that offer first-time employment, and the route out of poverty. There are 2.3 million people currently employed at waiting on tables in the United States. There are 162,000 Uber drivers. This route out of poverty will slam closed.The future industries are currently frontier economies, but they will move into the economic mainstream rapidly. The next wave will be a challenge to the middle classes everywhere, with the threat of a return to poverty.“I have been fortunate enough to gain a glimpse of what lies around the next corner. This book is about the next economy. It is written for everyone who wants to know how the next wave of innovation and globalization will affect our countries, our societies, and ourselves,” Ross explains.This book is a must read for all of us, if not as business people who must lead our companies into the future, then as moms and dads who owe it to our children to equip them for their future.Readability Light ----+ SeriousInsights High +---- LowPractical High ----+ LowIan Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy

The Industries of the Future, by former State Department Senior Advisor Alec Ross, is a compelling exploration of the conditions businesses and countries need to optimize in order to be successful in the decades to come. It borrows extensively from his time traveling the world in the federal government’s service, which means that his examples are unexpectedly diverse and shared in such a way that is only possible when the author has experienced something first-hand.The ‘industries of the future’ in the context of this book are not familiar verticals such as healthcare, manufacturing, or financial services, but the shifting paradigms that will govern future business. As Ross states in the introduction, “This book is about the next economy. It is written for everyone who wants to know how the next wave of innovation and globalization will affect our countries, our societies, and ourselves” (p. 6-7). Competitiveness is a function of all three dimensions, and it assumes that connectivity (and therefore interdependence) will only increase in the future.Advances in robotics play in important role throughout the book, and my only disappointment is that Ross confines his robotics discussions to traditional (mechanical) robots as opposed to including their newer software-based counterparts. While Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a relatively new service delivery model, and serves a different role for individuals and businesses than physical robots such as Honda’s ASIMO do, some of the human acceptance barriers seen in traditional robotics still apply. The need to lower costs and fulfill tactical service requirements drive robotics innovation and interest, but people continue to have trouble ‘bonding’ with these automated support systems. Despite the fact that most of the robotics discussion in the book relates to mechanical robots, Ross points out that the horizon for their impact far exceeds what we might conceive of today. In fact, it is hard not to feel in the robotic ‘cross hairs’ – even as a knowledge worker – when he writes, “In the greatest peril are the 60 percent of the US workforce whose main job function is to aggregate and apply information” (p. 38).In the future, the affects of globalization will be felt broadly, particularly in geographies that take an inefficient (authoritarian) approach to infrastructure, skills development, and information. There are two case examples in chapter six, The Geography of Future Markets, that are not to be missed.The first is the undeniably inspiring story of Maria Umar, a woman living in ‘bleak’ and ‘virtually lawless’ Waziristan, Pakistan. Her Women’s Digital League makes it possible for women with a wide variety of skills in remote parts of the world to connect with freelance virtual work opportunities. Not only is it a commercially effective arrangement for the women and the companies they support, it is an empowering force for good in parts of the world where women are prevented from balancing work and family, in some cases without any freedom outside the home. Later in the same chapter, Ross appeals to humanity (as well as logic) to make the case that societies that disregard the potential represented in the female half of their population will have no meaningful role in the industries of the future.The second story compares the current situation and improvement trajectories of Estonia and Belarus, two former Soviet occupied countries that found themselves in dire economic and industrial straits in the early 1990s. Estonia embraced openness – social, commercial, and political – and has reaped the benefits. The have become one of the innovation capitals of the world, due in part to their determination to climb out of chaos and also in decisions about technology infrastructure that allowed them to leap forward to the full capabilities of the present day rather than following the same process as other developed nations, even at a faster pace. Belarus on the other hand, has a ‘tightly controlled’ political and economic system. They have no technology and even less modern industry, both of which contribute to a weak and unstable economy.The real meaning in the difference between these two countries is not, however, their economic status as much as it is the living conditions of their citizens. Estonia’s standard of living has improved dramatically since the fall of the Soviet Union, while Belarus’ residents are living in what amounts to modern feudalism. There is no freedom of expression, of the press, or of assembly, and most businesses are state owned by the neo-Luddite government.Perhaps the most important take away from The Industries of the Future is that everyone, in every industry, geography, and walk of life, will find something in it that holds meaning for them. Living conditions and the role of the family are stressed from beginning to end and provide a constant reminder of why we work as hard as we do to achieve success, and what is required from a human perspective to realize the benefits of competition.

First, the good. These are interesting topics. It's good to be reminded of how much has changed in the last couple of decades. This is a fun read with some interesting stories. If you read the newspaper, you will find nothing new here. But getting a 10,000 foot view of the world can be a useful way to orient yourself.He also points out the troubling aspects of what he's highlighting, and at no point in the book does he come across as being way off base. His ideas about the future are probably as valid as any popular writers.Next, the "needs improvement." The book is peppered with cringe-worthy throwaways about who the author has hobnobbed with. It's fine that he starts off in the introduction elaborating on all he's seen and done. But then he reminds us again and again that he knows important people. When I first started reading the book, I thought the author must be in his late 20's, and that might account for him coming across as insecure. But then I read his bio and saw that he is in his 40's. I'm not saying we don't all have moments of insecurity, but for a writer to wear his on his sleeve like this is terribly offputting. Who was the editor that let him embarrass himself like this?If you are buying this book to answer the "how do we prepare our children for the future" question, don't bother. It's the same answers you've heard before. Raise them to be technologically literate and comfortable in a multicultural world.In reading his biography, it's clear he's done a lot of good things and his heart is most likely in the right place. Not a lot of schmucks volunteer for Teach for America or try to help the disadvantaged. But his record speaks for itself, so why the self-aggrandizement?

What are the industries of the future?Before I read this book I would say anything environmental, AI, robotics, biotech (that include genetics), IoT, neuroscience, space, gaming and health. There is obvious overlap between those sectors. Just imagine a huge box full of lego blocks, combining these technologies with mobile, nano, virtual reality, big data, augmenting, biomimicry, material science, quantum physics and you have a Pandora’s box of industries we have not even imagined.Alec RossAlec Ross thinks that the industries of the future are robotics, advanced life sciences, the codification of money, cyber security, and big data. Not much to argue there, although in my view very limited and almost too easy.North Korea or EstoniaWhat the book does do is show the countries that are ahead and the once that are behind, and the book puts the industries into a geopolitical, cultural, and generational context. All 196 countries in the world have a choice. You can be North Korea or Estonia. That goes for your company too.Europe versus JapanI would suggest it will make for unhappy reading for European policy makers and there is no doubt, power is shifting East. Japan already leads the world in robotics, operating 310,000 of the 1.4 million industrial robots in existence across the world. Driven by an increasingly older population, they have particularly focussed on elderly care and health. That includes augmentation, which is a growth sector all on its own. Other counties to watch in robotics are China, the United States, South Korea, and Germany.Pandora’s boxWhat everyone needs to consider, and here is the Pandora’s lego box again, is when robotics get combined with big data, cloud (all robots connected and learning), AI, nano and biology. No wonder venture capital funding in robotics is growing at a steep rate. It more than doubled in just three years, from $160 million in 2011 to $341 million in 2014. The market for consumer robots could hit $390 billion by 2017, and industrial robots should hit $40 billion in 2020.RoboticsThe number of robotic procedures is increasing by about 30 percent a year, and more than 1 million Americans have already undergone robotic surgery, and it is growing exponentially. It is quite amazing what robots are doing already, from hunting jelly fish and hunting cancer to hair washing, waiting tables, cleaning floor but also teaching maths and anything in between. There is no doubt, as the technology continues to advance, robots will kill many jobs.JobsTwo Oxford University professors who studied more than 700 detailed occupational types have published a study making the case that over half of US jobs could be at risk of computerization in the next two decades. Forty-seven percent of American jobs are at high risk for robot takeover, and another 19 percent face a medium level of risk.Singularity, when, not ifThe level of investment in robotics (including drones, self-driving cars, etc.), combined with advances in technology are setting the foundation for the 2020s to produce breakthroughs in robotics that bring today’s science fiction right. Including singularity which is expected somewhere between 2023 (Vernor Vinge) and 2045 (Ray Kurzweil). We have moved from “if” to “when”.ChinaThat is why China is not just relying on forced urbanisation to produce low-cost labour; it is also investing heavily in the industries of the future. Every country needs to invest in growing fields like robotics but also invest in a social framework that makes sure those who are losing their jobs are able to stay afloat long enough to pivot to the industries or positions that offer new possibilities. Humans are not as easy to upgrade as software.Life sciencesThat is the robotic industry. Now for life sciences. The size of the genomics market was estimated at a little more than $11 billion in 2013 and is going to grow faster than anyone could imagine. We are talking DNA sequencing, precision medicine, designer babies, neuroscience (the genetics of suicide), xenotransplantation and Jurassic Park.With 78 organs, 206 bones, and 640 muscles, not to mention up to 25,000 genes, our bodies are complicated machines. We are hacking the machine, part by part. As a result, we will live longer lives, but our lives will grow more complicated as we manageCyber securityIncluding and particularly in the world of cyber security If you have read “Future Crimes“, you really want augmentation, DNA and robots to be secure. A hacked care robot hovering over your bed with a knife is not something you want. A hacked augmented hand strangling you is also not a prospect you would relish. Let alone someone hacking your voice, your DNA, or your brain.Hacking. Malware. Virus. Worm. Trojan horse. Distributed denial-of-service. Cyber attack. The terms for the weaponisation of code are by now well known, but we are just beginning to understand their full implications.175 billion industryOver the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, the cyber security market will have grown from a $3.5 billion market employing a few thousand people working in IT departments to a $175 billion market providing critical infrastructure. Cyber has grown into such a mission-critical function that every Fortune 500 board chairman now should make sure he or she has a board member with cyber expertise. In five years, any board of directors without a board member with expertise in cyber will be perceived as a shortcoming of corporate governance.IoTCombine that with what will be a $19 trillion global market in the Internet of Things and we are creating an almost unimaginable new set of vulnerabilities and openings for cyber security hacks.For example, in July 2015, hackers managed to remotely infiltrate and shut down a Jeep Cherokee while it was speeding along the highway. Did you know that GPS is hackable? Don’t trust your Tom-Tom.Long term cyber attacks pose a greater threat to national security than terrorism. We have moved from cold war to code war.Coded moneyAlec Ross other favourite future industry is coded money, blockchain and fintech and how that will transform local and global economies, particularly Africa. M-Pesa and Shwari as examples. But also the sharing economy. At last measure, the estimated size of the global sharing economy was $26 billion, and it’s growing fast, with some estimates projecting it will be more than 20 times larger in size by 2025. Read “Machines, Platforms, Crowds“.Big dataThe last industry he mentions is big data, quantified self and algorithms. Did you know that an estimated one-third of all marriages in the United States begin with online dating which is run through an algorithm? The best quote of the book is this one “Serendipity fades with everything we hand over to algorithms”.Impact on your businessAlec Ross is spot on. None of those industries can be ignored and they will impact on your business. Robotics, cyber, big data, coded money will do so very soon.What are we going to do?The question is what policy makers are going to do about it. If you read “The Seventh Sense”, politicians are the last ones to understand what goes on. And it not about:Technology parksMix in R&D labs and university centres;Provide incentives to attract scientists, firms and users;Interconnect the industry through consortia and specialised suppliers;Protect intellectual property and tech transfer;Establish a favourable business environment and regulations.It is about broadband infrastructure, women (“women hold up half the sky”), openness, domain expertise, quality of life, the flow of ideas, innovation and yes, creating active serendipity.What are you going to do?Or look at some examples of good practice such as Singapore, Estonia, Japan and China versus Belarus, North Korea and Venezuela. Which one do you want to be?I want to be Estonia (or Japan).

Is the author a visionary or a mere a reasonably connected guy making sweeping statements based on pub discussions with his mates? You decide.Some insights about what will happen next are interesting (you should soon be able to tweak your own genes, big data is –well– big, money is no longer made in manufacturing stuff but in design and clever marketing, Uber is here to stay). This is IMHO a good round up of what's in store.Despite the large number of references to papers and articles, I have the nagging feeling that Alec Ross has adopted an angle (spoiler alert here: if you are not in the digital economy by tomorrow morning, some guy in Estonia will eat your bacon sandwich) but has conveniently disposed of the nuances and the "if things carry on exactly the way they go now" - and we know they don't always do.Long and short, it is a good outlook on the near digital future, but you will probably want something a bit more high octane if you like the specifics and a more nuanced approach.

Wish you could have predicted the internet before it happened? Well this book will help you understand and predict what’s about to happen next. Economic analysis mixed with storytelling, this book gives an informed perspective of future global trends. If you want to stay ahead then this is the book to read. Every global trend predicted in this book is backed by evidence, stories, and well throughout analysis.If you’re interested in the future, in tech, and in staying ahead of the majority then this book is for you. From in-depth analysis to interesting stories, this one is worth a read.

An excellent read with many in depth examples and the chapters are themed so that you are able to understand the different applications of new industries. Simply written and accessible yet introduces you to new ideas and terminology. Slightly tainted by the americ elections in that it was overtly positive but I have understood ideas that I would difficult to grasp previously as someone that didn’t use email till my mid20s. I was born in the 70s.

at first I thought it was a bit same old, same old for people who keep abreast of the subject but it consolidates information well and offers a lot of good examples. I'm half way though on audible and will go to the end