---
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title: "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives"
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---

# The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

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Review: Probability/statistics + cognitive psychology = awesome book - In "The Drunkard's Walk," CalTech physics professor Leonard Mlodinow goes about explaining probability and statistics in very simple terms, accessible to most anyone with a yearning to know about the subject. Each topic is discussed in its historical context, so you get a good sense of not just the all-important "what" but also who, why and how. The anecdotal presentation of the otherwise dry mathematical topics makes for an interesting, easy, and pleasurable read (without the condescending tone of similar books, e.g. Innumeracy ), though without any equations, your ability to use most of the material is limited. The way Mlodinow presents the topic is certainly thought-provoking and philosophical, but I would urge the reader to remain a bit skeptical. Just as I do not believe in an invisible man in the sky, I similarly refuse to believe that everything I do subject to some other unseen force that decides at a whim whether or not I am successful or not in an undertaking. I guess I lean pretty far to the deterministic viewpoint, but in the context of Mlodinow's arguments, I think "randomness" is a nice way of saying "ignorance." Everything is causal- the outcome of rolling dice, flipping coins, or dealing cards can be predicted with the equations that describe motion- the problem lies in not knowing precisely and exactly the initial conditions and all of the forces during the event (e.g., wind), so to make up for our ignorance we have the field of probability, which tries to use the statistics of past events to predict the future. We can abstract the simple event of flipping a coin to other things, including the most irrational and unpredictable of them all- human behavior- which is where Mlodinow eventually takes his readers. Everything in life, including driving on the highways, winning and losing in the stock market, sports, decision making, perceptions of other humans, music, movies, etc., exhibits "randomness" (also chaos - the so-called butterfly effect, which is not randomness), and we are encouraged to step back and be a little more thoughtful about what is happening around us, and, as the book is ended, to be thankful for the good fortunes we have had thus far. Anyway, I thought this was a great book. I would recommend it to just about anyone.
Review: Randomness, Probablility, and Life - Human beings naturally attempt to make sense of their world and circumstances by looking for patterns in the events that occur in their lives, but Leonard Mlodinow thinks that in many cases we are mistaken when we do so. In "The Drunkard's Walk," Mlodinow uses examples from baseball, lotteries, elections, the stock market, and health care to demonstrate that most people don't have a proper view of probability and chance and that randomness plays a larger part in our lives than we believe (or want to believe). Even though this is an applied math book, it is very accessible--the author does a great job of explaining concepts like regression to the mean and the bell curve, and how the latter is often used to make sense of social data. The author uses probability to demonstrate why it is dangerous to judge ability from short-term results. There does seem to be a conflicting message on success. Mlodinow rightly explains the role of persistence in success, but then goes a little too far in asserting that success and salaries are random--in most areas of life, virtue and reward go hand in hand, even if the correlation is not perfect. The author uses the example of actors to make his point, but this is deceptive, as certainly randomness will play a much larger role when many people are trying to break into such an overcrowded and exceptionally competitive field. In perhaps the most arresting part of the book, the author quotes a mathematician who states that in an infinitely large sequence of random zeroes and ones, one could expect several sequences of one million consecutive zeroes. This seems unbelievable, but could explain why a few people seem preternaturally lucky and a few others seem cursed. If you are like most of us who have hung out on this planet for a few decades, though, you have had a lot of both good luck and bad luck and probably have had one year in which you received a lot of wholly undeserved good fortune and one year in which you seemed completely snakebit. "The Drunkard's Walk" shows that life is random, but imparts an important message: persistence is important--the longer you persevere at a task, the better your chances of arriving at the pass at which randomness works in your favor.

## Technical Specifications

| Specification | Value |
|---------------|-------|
| Best Sellers Rank | #65,942 in Books ( See Top 100 in Books ) #4 in Chaos Theory #42 in Probability & Statistics (Books) #120 in Pure Mathematics (Books) |
| Customer Reviews | 4.4 out of 5 stars 1,864 Reviews |

## Images

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## Customer Reviews

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Probability/statistics + cognitive psychology = awesome book
*by L***R on November 15, 2009*

In "The Drunkard's Walk," CalTech physics professor Leonard Mlodinow goes about explaining probability and statistics in very simple terms, accessible to most anyone with a yearning to know about the subject. Each topic is discussed in its historical context, so you get a good sense of not just the all-important "what" but also who, why and how. The anecdotal presentation of the otherwise dry mathematical topics makes for an interesting, easy, and pleasurable read (without the condescending tone of similar books, e.g. Innumeracy ), though without any equations, your ability to use most of the material is limited. The way Mlodinow presents the topic is certainly thought-provoking and philosophical, but I would urge the reader to remain a bit skeptical. Just as I do not believe in an invisible man in the sky, I similarly refuse to believe that everything I do subject to some other unseen force that decides at a whim whether or not I am successful or not in an undertaking. I guess I lean pretty far to the deterministic viewpoint, but in the context of Mlodinow's arguments, I think "randomness" is a nice way of saying "ignorance." Everything is causal- the outcome of rolling dice, flipping coins, or dealing cards can be predicted with the equations that describe motion- the problem lies in not knowing precisely and exactly the initial conditions and all of the forces during the event (e.g., wind), so to make up for our ignorance we have the field of probability, which tries to use the statistics of past events to predict the future. We can abstract the simple event of flipping a coin to other things, including the most irrational and unpredictable of them all- human behavior- which is where Mlodinow eventually takes his readers. Everything in life, including driving on the highways, winning and losing in the stock market, sports, decision making, perceptions of other humans, music, movies, etc., exhibits "randomness" (also chaos - the so-called butterfly effect, which is not randomness), and we are encouraged to step back and be a little more thoughtful about what is happening around us, and, as the book is ended, to be thankful for the good fortunes we have had thus far. Anyway, I thought this was a great book. I would recommend it to just about anyone.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Randomness, Probablility, and Life
*by E***H on December 31, 2010*

Human beings naturally attempt to make sense of their world and circumstances by looking for patterns in the events that occur in their lives, but Leonard Mlodinow thinks that in many cases we are mistaken when we do so. In "The Drunkard's Walk," Mlodinow uses examples from baseball, lotteries, elections, the stock market, and health care to demonstrate that most people don't have a proper view of probability and chance and that randomness plays a larger part in our lives than we believe (or want to believe). Even though this is an applied math book, it is very accessible--the author does a great job of explaining concepts like regression to the mean and the bell curve, and how the latter is often used to make sense of social data. The author uses probability to demonstrate why it is dangerous to judge ability from short-term results. There does seem to be a conflicting message on success. Mlodinow rightly explains the role of persistence in success, but then goes a little too far in asserting that success and salaries are random--in most areas of life, virtue and reward go hand in hand, even if the correlation is not perfect. The author uses the example of actors to make his point, but this is deceptive, as certainly randomness will play a much larger role when many people are trying to break into such an overcrowded and exceptionally competitive field. In perhaps the most arresting part of the book, the author quotes a mathematician who states that in an infinitely large sequence of random zeroes and ones, one could expect several sequences of one million consecutive zeroes. This seems unbelievable, but could explain why a few people seem preternaturally lucky and a few others seem cursed. If you are like most of us who have hung out on this planet for a few decades, though, you have had a lot of both good luck and bad luck and probably have had one year in which you received a lot of wholly undeserved good fortune and one year in which you seemed completely snakebit. "The Drunkard's Walk" shows that life is random, but imparts an important message: persistence is important--the longer you persevere at a task, the better your chances of arriving at the pass at which randomness works in your favor.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Marvelous! Marvelous! Marvelous!
*by C***K on October 2, 2008*

As a teacher of high school mathematics and statistics, I have read many such books on the subject at hand. Few of them are as readable and enjoyable as The Drunkard's Walk. What Mlodinow's brings to the table is a great sense of humor and a writing style that is entertaining and engaging, with great stories to go along with the mathematical ideas he shares. He brings in historical anecdotes and psychological research to highlight how mathematical truth and human perception clash. I found myself very impressed by his ability to bring in the perfect study or story to illustrate a point. Essentially, the book is a course in Statistics 101, but reading it, you'd never know. It is geared to the average intelligent reader, but there are few mathematical formulas or abstractions. Enjoy! Other related books and how they compare: Against the Gods- The Remarkable Story of Risk: Much drier. More detail, less fun. Fooled By Randomness: Arrogant writing style, too philosophical for my taste. Focus on the markets. Damn Lies and Statistics: Narrow focus on how Statistics can mislead. Good examples, though not as entertaining. Chances Are: A good read, similar content, though this is more engaging. Innumeracy: A must read classic by Paulos. Predictably Irrational: Fun book, similar style but more about behavioral economics (overlaps last chapter of this book) Sway: Pretty good, but not as overarching as Predictably Irrational SuperCrunchers: Unimpressive book that I thought didn't prove thesis well.

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